What’s driving it isn’t just rising global tension—but the unprecedented decision making globally.
Obvious recent examples include:
- Iran, where internal unrest, sanctions volatility, and escalation risk have forced continuous scenario updates rather than regular reviews.
- Venezuela, where U.S. policy ambiguity has transformed a “contained” risk into a regional shock variable for energy, migration, and politics. We may see a more controlled regional climate moving forward or a complete breakdown of the current regime with fractured power dynamics continuing until real intervention takes place.
- Greenland and the Arctic, where U.S. security interests, allied tensions, and critical minerals have turned a once-peripheral geography into a near-term strategic concern.
The common thread creating need: compressed decision timelines and limited signalling, which make forecasting insufficient. This is why geopolitical risk advisory is continuing to play an active role in every boardroom.
In a world where policy shifts can emerge faster than markets can price them, geopolitical insight has become a source of strategic advantage—not just risk mitigation. This is reflected in the fact that the global risk market grew by $52 billion to $159 billion (£119 billion) between 2020 and 2025, according to Source Global Research estimates, and it is predicted to grow by a further $37 billion to 2028. In 2025 we saw this growth as an increase in geopolitical advisory specific roles, up 22% with multiple clients looking to build new teams/regional hubs.
It’s clear however, that while prediction matters more than ever it is routinely less able to meet useful levels of accuracy. Developing scenarios that create opportunity from crisis remains the crucial function. I’ve seen stronger growth/demand in this respect from blended firms and teams looking for a mix of backgrounds, ex diplomats and foreign affairs specialists operating with strategy consultants and economists to generate an apparently more nuanced view of decision making, impact and fallout.
I’m incredibly excited to continue working in this space, which has allowed me to engage with clients on every continent in the past year. Thank you to everyone I worked with over 2025, it was certainly a unique year and I look forward to doing it all again in 2026.
- by Davey Peyton